Nigeria's turning point elections on February 23, 2019*

Nigeria is a veritable factory of sophisticated novelists. It was no surprise that Ben Okri won the British Booker Prize that goes annually to the best novelist of the year.

Considering that high-class novel writing in English only began in Nigeria in 1958 with Chinua Achebe’s famous work, “Things Fall Apart”, now a classic, it has come a long way in a short time.

Will Nigeria move at a similar speed with its economy and banish poverty as it once promised to?

Read Ben Okri’s vivid capture of poverty in his novel, The Famished Road, where the words are illuminated as if they had been thrown up in the air, then descend, sparkling like diamonds and rubies: “Everywhere there was the crudity of wounds, the stark huts, the rusted zinc abodes, and the rubbish in the streets, children in rags, and the little girls naked on the sand playing with crushed tin-cans….The sun bared the reality of our lives and everything was so harsh it was a mystery that we could understand and care for one another or for anything at all.”

Okri’s prose is no longer quite accurate. When he published that in 1991 Nigeria was, as the IMF says, a “less developed country”.

Today with an income per head per year of over a thousand US dollars it’s a lower medium level country. It has the biggest national income per year in Africa, followed by South Africa and then Egypt. 

There hasn’t been a better president since Olusegun Obasanjo, who ruled from 1999 to 2007. Aided by high oil prices he revamped agricultural policy, drastically reformed the police and the army, tackled bribery head on and sought through the British courts to regain looted money.

He sorted out the poor management in Lagos’s airport and docks. He supported good governors of states- including the dynamic mayors of Lagos, Bola Tinubu and then Babatunde Fashola and Akinwunmi  Ambode, when the city’s garbage collection, roads, public transport, land reclamation and health services were fast upgraded and public safety much improved.

Obasanjo also supported the governor of Cross River State and the mayor of Calabar who, along with their predecessors, have made it into a slum-less garden city with a high income per head. He initiated the plans, recently fulfilled, for a modern railway from Lagos to Kano in the far north. He reformed an almost unreformable oil industry where money was syphoned off by pirates, corruption prevailed and the oil companies spilled oil on farmers’ land.

He talked into peace the armed insurgents who badly affected the Niger Delta area, the location of the best oil fields, by offering the fighters cash in hand and the possibility of retraining in various skills. 

Nevertheless, the oil business still suffers from large-scale corruption, witness the present London court case where the big bank, JP Morgan Chase and Co, is being prosecuted for facilitating the misappropriation of funds amounting to 875 US million dollars. Separately, Nigeria has filled a 1.1 billion US dollars claim against the oil companies Shell and ENI, to “recover the very significant sums loss to corruption and unlawful activity”. (Shell has already been found guilty in an earlier case.)

After Obasanjo came the well-meaning, reform-reminded Muslim, Umaru Adua, who died after three years on the job.

Next came his vice-president, Goodluck Jonathan, who presided over the corruption of his cronies. However, he did step down at the end of his term, thus cementing Nigeria’s democracy.

Now the incumbent is Muhammadu Buhari. He too has been seriously ill and away for months in London for treatment. Fortunately, his vice president, Yemi Osinbajo, has capably pushed reform forward.

Next week is the election.

Buhari is standing for re-election against Obasanjo’s vice president, Atiku Ahubakar, who is widely seen as corrupt and not a great supporter of democracy. (I once saw him at a rally – during one of my dozen visits to Nigeria – when a photographer got too close and he ordered his bodyguards to beat him up.)

Buhari, by Obasanjo standards, has not been a driving force for reform. His virtue is that he is not corrupt. His major fault is that he’s allowed the army to commit atrocities in the fight against Boko Haram, a nihilistic, extreme Islamic, movement that has terrified much of the north. It began in 2002, at first very slowly. Although now it has retreated it’s still strong enough to turn villages up side down.

The economy is projected to grow at only 2.3% this year, well below what it was in Obasanjo’s day – 7 to 8%. Oil prices have been very low but are climbing again.

Buhari is the favourite to win. Let’s see with extra oil revenue if he can put Nigeria back on track – and match Obasanjo’s record. Otherwise, with its mushrooming unemployment, big parts of Nigeria may head downward, back to the way Ben Okri described it.

Note
Nigeria’s elections were originally scheduled for February 16 but, in the last hours, changed to February 23.



Foreign affairs columnist, film-maker and author

Share

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Posts

The MIMAC – Military-Industrial-Media-Academic Complex – drives the world’s rampant militarism and wars without end. Here is a short reflection of how it works against all interests of humanity. #5 deals with why there is no real enemy or threat images/analysis. It’s all ex-post constructions. And, btw, theTFF Peace Pulse is now on Rumble.
Jan Oberg, TFF director April 28, 2026 In this third TFF Peace Pulse, I make the important distinction between the violence and the conflict that violence is a symptom of. If you want peace, focus on the underlying conflict because that is the key to resolution, peacemaking, and a better future for the parties. The West is obsessed with violence, just look around you – and 90+ per cent of the public debate is about military issues and other violence – totally wasted for peace. These Peace Pulses will only be published here a few times. You will also not find them on YouTube and Vimeo because both platforms have blocked TFF and me; you know, peace is dangerous these days. Most TFF’s videos since 2007 are now on Rumble.
In contrast to most, we’ll bring alternatives, solutions, hope and strategies for a better future. Times are dangerous, yes, but that only intensifies the need for constructive thinking and action! Jan Oberg, TFF director April 13, 2026 The new TFF Peace Pulse uses video messages in a new way: Max 3-5-minute-long comments, ideas or perhaps mini-lectures, all about peace – positive peace. We launch them today on April 13, 2026 with a carefully crafted visual aesthetic fitting the content. We hope to publish them regularly from now on. We launch Peace Pulse (PP) – for a number of reasons. The world is in chaos, and there are countless reasons to feel concerned, frustrated, even angry. The atmosphere is saturated with doom and gloom, with negative energy and rear‑mirror thinking, while vision, imagination, alternatives, strategies and genuine future‑mindedness remain in short supply. And without them, we simply can’t save the world. Looking at problems from a hundred angles will...

Recent Articles

“En dag som berättigar till fest”, utropade den London-baserade al-Quds al-Arabi efter FN:s eldupphörresolution, “eftersom detta är första gången som Israel accepterar ett FN-beslut från en position som besegrad och inte som segrare”. Att ett arabisk-israeliskt krig för en gångs skull slutat med arabisk seger, är en helt dominerade åsikt i arabiska medier. Al-Quds al-Arabi tillåter sig att drömma om att det israeliska nederlaget skall leda till massflykt från Israel. Men i nästa andetag påminner tidningen om att Israel aldrig brukar genomföra sina internationella åtaganden och varnar för att förlorarna, liksom tidigare, kan hämnas genom att provocera fram inbördeskrig i Libanon. Med tanke på de otaliga massmediala vittnesmålen om det libanesiska folkets eniga motståndskraft förefaller risken för inre stridigheter i det sargade landet just nu liten. Men visst kan man urskilja nyansskillnader i libanesiska tidningar. Vänsterorganet al-Safir uppfattar FN-resolutionen som en komplott i syfte att rädda Israel från ännu större...
Greenland – the world’s largest island, a continent of its own with only 57.000 inhabitants. I visited it for the first time in May 2005. I flew across the inland ice to Nuuk, the tiny capital with some 14.000 inhabitants. I was overwhelmed by the pride and kindness of everyone I met as well as by the unique natural beauty. Unfortunately, due to weather conditions during my ten-day stay I could get nowhere else but Nuuk. Fortunately, however, among those I met was Gitte Arvegaard, a Danish lawyer and negotiator employed by the local government, Greenland Home Rule. She turned out to be an enthusiastic photographer with a lot of pictures taken during various trips around Greenland. So this Greeland series is the result of our cooperative effort. We both hope you enjoy it and are stimulated to visit Greenland – about which you may read more here. Finally, if you want to...
 Jan Oberg’s storyof how he met Sir Paul Liverpool – where else to meet Paul McCartney? Paul’s old class mate and TFF Associate, Jonathan Power introduced me to Paul McCartney in Liverpool at an informal reception. It was held at what used to be their school, now the Liverpool Institute for Performing Arts and we were there to celebrate that Jonathan had written Amnesty International’s 40th Anniversary book. This happy event for “righting wrongs and writing songs” gave me an opportunity to meet Paul and tell him about TFF and get straight to the matter: would he consider making a donation in support of our work for peace? While I was probably the only one with such a wish that day, I was certainly not the only one who wanted to shake hands and talk with him. In the last minutes before Paul was to leave, Jonathan brought us together and we got about three...

TFF on Substack

Discover more from TFF Transnational Foundation & Jan Oberg.

Most Popular

“En dag som berättigar till fest”, utropade den London-baserade al-Quds al-Arabi efter FN:s eldupphörresolution, “eftersom detta är första gången som Israel accepterar ett FN-beslut från en position som besegrad och inte som segrare”. Att ett arabisk-israeliskt krig för en gångs skull slutat med arabisk seger, är en helt dominerade åsikt i arabiska medier. Al-Quds al-Arabi tillåter sig att drömma om att det israeliska nederlaget skall leda till massflykt från Israel. Men i nästa andetag påminner tidningen om att Israel aldrig brukar genomföra sina internationella åtaganden och varnar för att förlorarna, liksom tidigare, kan hämnas genom att provocera fram inbördeskrig i Libanon. Med tanke på de otaliga massmediala vittnesmålen om det libanesiska folkets eniga motståndskraft förefaller risken för inre stridigheter i det sargade landet just nu liten. Men visst kan man urskilja nyansskillnader i libanesiska tidningar. Vänsterorganet al-Safir uppfattar FN-resolutionen som en komplott i syfte att rädda Israel från ännu större...
Greenland – the world’s largest island, a continent of its own with only 57.000 inhabitants. I visited it for the first time in May 2005. I flew across the inland ice to Nuuk, the tiny capital with some 14.000 inhabitants. I was overwhelmed by the pride and kindness of everyone I met as well as by the unique natural beauty. Unfortunately, due to weather conditions during my ten-day stay I could get nowhere else but Nuuk. Fortunately, however, among those I met was Gitte Arvegaard, a Danish lawyer and negotiator employed by the local government, Greenland Home Rule. She turned out to be an enthusiastic photographer with a lot of pictures taken during various trips around Greenland. So this Greeland series is the result of our cooperative effort. We both hope you enjoy it and are stimulated to visit Greenland – about which you may read more here. Finally, if you want to...
 Jan Oberg’s storyof how he met Sir Paul Liverpool – where else to meet Paul McCartney? Paul’s old class mate and TFF Associate, Jonathan Power introduced me to Paul McCartney in Liverpool at an informal reception. It was held at what used to be their school, now the Liverpool Institute for Performing Arts and we were there to celebrate that Jonathan had written Amnesty International’s 40th Anniversary book. This happy event for “righting wrongs and writing songs” gave me an opportunity to meet Paul and tell him about TFF and get straight to the matter: would he consider making a donation in support of our work for peace? While I was probably the only one with such a wish that day, I was certainly not the only one who wanted to shake hands and talk with him. In the last minutes before Paul was to leave, Jonathan brought us together and we got about three...
Read More
Imagen-thumbnail-The-Transnational-1
“En dag som berättigar till fest”, utropade den London-baserade al-Quds al-Arabi efter FN:s eldupphörresolution, “eftersom detta är första gången som Israel accepterar ett FN-beslut från en position som besegrad och inte som segrare”. Att ett arabisk-israeliskt krig för en gångs skull slutat med arabisk seger, är en helt dominerade åsikt i arabiska medier. Al-Quds al-Arabi tillåter sig att drömma om att det israeliska nederlaget skall leda till massflykt från Israel. Men i nästa andetag påminner tidningen om att Israel aldrig brukar genomföra sina internationella åtaganden och varnar för att förlorarna, liksom tidigare, kan hämnas genom att provocera fram inbördeskrig i Libanon. Med tanke på de otaliga massmediala vittnesmålen om det libanesiska folkets eniga motståndskraft förefaller risken för inre stridigheter i det sargade landet just nu liten. Men visst kan man urskilja nyansskillnader i libanesiska tidningar. Vänsterorganet al-Safir uppfattar FN-resolutionen som en komplott i syfte att rädda Israel från ännu större...
Greenland – the world’s largest island, a continent of its own with only 57.000 inhabitants. I visited it for the first time in May 2005. I flew across the inland ice to Nuuk, the tiny capital with some 14.000 inhabitants. I was overwhelmed by the pride and kindness of everyone I met as well as by the unique natural beauty. Unfortunately, due to weather conditions during my ten-day stay I could get nowhere else but Nuuk. Fortunately, however, among those I met was Gitte Arvegaard, a Danish lawyer and negotiator employed by the local government, Greenland Home Rule. She turned out to be an enthusiastic photographer with a lot of pictures taken during various trips around Greenland. So this Greeland series is the result of our cooperative effort. We both hope you enjoy it and are stimulated to visit Greenland – about which you may read more here. Finally, if you want to...
p_mccartney_poem
 Jan Oberg’s storyof how he met Sir Paul Liverpool – where else to meet Paul McCartney? Paul’s old class mate and TFF Associate, Jonathan Power introduced me to Paul McCartney in Liverpool at an informal reception. It was held at what used to be their school, now the Liverpool Institute for Performing Arts and we were there to celebrate that Jonathan had written Amnesty International’s 40th Anniversary book. This happy event for “righting wrongs and writing songs” gave me an opportunity to meet Paul and tell him about TFF and get straight to the matter: would he consider making a donation in support of our work for peace? While I was probably the only one with such a wish that day, I was certainly not the only one who wanted to shake hands and talk with him. In the last minutes before Paul was to leave, Jonathan brought us together and we got about three...
Logo-Transnational
1942James Paul McCartney is born in Liverpool on June 18th. 1956Paul writes his first song, I Lost My Little Girl. 1957Paul meets John Lennon at St. Peter’s Church Fete, Woolton, Liverpool. He joins his first group, The Quarrymen and performs in his first gig at The New Clubmoor Hall, Liverpool, on October 18th. 1960Formation of The Beatles, who play residencies in Hamburg and at The Cavern in Liverpool. 1961First Beatles recordings issued in Germany, as the backing group for Tony Sheridan. 1962The first Beatles Parlophone recording, Love Me Do, reaches number 17 in the British charts. 1963The birth of Beatlemania. Please Please Me gives the group their first British Number 1. She Loves You cements their success. Please Please Me and With The Beatles albums released. 1964First triumphant American tour. The Beatles perform at the Royal Command Performance and release their first film, A Hard Day’s Night. Their single I...
Logo-Transnational
  Back to the series “Bujumbura, Burundi”
By JONATHAN POWER August 16, 2000 LONDON – Remember the summer of ’98? In the sweltering, torpid heat of a Roman august, charged with exhaust fumes, the international community gave its overwhelming approval to the establishment of an International Criminal Court that will enable those accused of “crimes against humanity” to be tried and, if convicted, sentenced. Only seven nations opposed or abstained from the motion, including Israel, China, India and the U.S.A. where the Pentagon had successfully waged bureaucratic guerrilla war to undermine the initially sympathetic stance of President Bill Clinton. Two years on we can now see what an epochal event that was. In a the stroke of 120 pens it changed the climate on political thuggery. After numerous half-starts and false starts ever since the Nuremberg and Tokyo trials that convicted the war criminals of the Second World War, the world at last had agreed en masse a common...