LUND, SWEDEN—If you want to win a lot of money in a three way political bet, then gamble that by the end of the autumn that Bill Clinton, Helmut Kohl and Goran Persson will all be still firmly in office.
No one should underestimate how fine grind the wheels of the American legal system. But, in the end, whether Clinton goes or stays is a political matter. No Congress of the United States would want to go down in history as the one that stripped a president of office for breaking his marital vows and lying to cover this up. Even if the stock market should plummet and Clinton’s poll ratings drop precipitously, nothing can change this very basic political fact.
In Germany Helmut Kohl, after 16 non-stop years in the Chancellor’s chair, looks set for defeat in next month’s general election. But don’t believe it until you see it. He was written off before the last election but then, as he is now, made a remarkably strong finish. Events today are playing into Kohl’s hands. Not just the healthy performance of the German economy, but the political instability in Russia. The grand accomplishments of his tenure, the reunification of Germany and the introduction of the European single currency, cannot be matched by any promises of the Social Democratic opposition. There is no equal great idea on their horizon. High unemployment remains a bugbear and the Social Democrats believe they have some policies that may well bring it down. But not everyone is convinced, and in another term of office it would have to be Kohl’s priority too. And always, even if it is in parenthesis, it has to be said again and again, that it is a statistical illusion that continental European unemployment rates are so much higher than that of the U.S.–America just locks up a large part of its unemployed, mainly young blacks convicted of small time drug offenses.
It is in Sweden, however, that the conventional political wisdom is likely to face its severest come-uppance–and this must surely be the most interesting political happening in the western world in the second half of 1998. The Social Democrats may not be riding very high but they are doing better than any of their rivals and look poised to propel their leader Goran Persson back into the prime minister’s office.
Victory will demonstrate once more to those who usually prefer not to know that sophisticated capitalism can comfortably function in a society that works to redistribute its wealth to the poor, aged, sick and unemployed.
For decades now, Sweden has been knocked, by usually rather ignorant commentators in the U.S. and Britain, often taking their cue from Sweden’s own vociferous right wing that wields a disproportionate influence in the local press. Right now, after an awful recession by Swedish standards, with the budgets of schools and hospitals being painfully pared, the economy is bouncing back under Mr Persson’s clever stewardship. Eschewing all the gimmicks of the anglo-saxons, large scale labour deregulation, tax cuts and the rest (although it pioneered privatisation), Sweden today is steadily increasing its GNP growth, lowering its unemployment and announcing government spending plans to repair the damage caused by six years of cut-backs.
The myths about Sweden are legion and none are more profoundly wrong than those about Swedish sexual habits–which, since this column began with an opinion on the consequences of Clinton’s sex life, is worth a word or two. Yes, a male might be excused, if one walks around Stockholm, feasting on one blonde after another, that this country is some kind of sexual nirvana. But such lustful thoughts are more likely to remain unfulfilled than satisfied. Swedish women are no more or less promisicuous than their western peers. They may have pioneered living in sin, a “sambo” as the Swedish state officially calls it. This entitles the partners to all the benefits of marriage and all the penalties of separation–a 50/50 division of assets if you’ve lived together for more than two years. But most Swedes simply aspire to a stable marriage and a Volvo in the drive.
Swedes are more heavily taxed than any other nation in the world. That is not a myth. They groan about it all the time. But given the chance to support a conservative government, after four years they inevitably tire of its tax cuts, therefore social service cuts and throw them out. The Swedes realise they live in a state that makes sure their hospitals, schools and old people’s homes are the world’s best, and it would be all too easy to undermine their standing with a competitive private sector that creams the milk and leaves the rest slowly but steadily to deteriorate, as has happened in America and is gathering pace in Britain. The Swedes understand about being counter-productive.
Whether it be the U.S., Germany or Sweden, the eternal truth prevails. Electorates don’t take to change easily. If you deliver what people are used to then the people stay with you. In the U.S., it is economic prosperity and great power status. In Germany, remedy for the defeat in World War II. In Sweden, social responsibility.
Everyone to their own taste, as the French say. Another bet: in all likelihood Al Gore will be the next president of the U.S.A..
