) need to resort to violence in defense of their positions on the Sharia issue since God, whom they both claim to worship, is quite capable of upholding his own causes,” he said in a broadcast.

Similarly, tribal tensions have ebbed, partly because the rapid advance in agriculture has brought rising incomes to the countryside and the small rural market towns. Oil income has started to be used better, if not well enough. Even the threat of multiple air crashes appears to have diminished as Obasanjo pushed fly-by-the-pants airlines to consolidate and retire clapped out panes.

In Lagos the streets are noticeably cleaner- and no longer are there dead bodies at the roadside, waiting to be removed. Lagos itself is becoming a different place from the days when it was an out-of-control, mass of teaming humanity. As Ben Okri, the Nigerian novelist, wrote a few years ago, “The air vibrating with poisonous heat…the sun bared the reality of our lives and everything was so harsh it was a mystery that we could understand and care for one another or for anything at all.”

Long time observers of the huge metropolis were amazed that in the election there were no reports of violence or vote stuffing.

Large modern houses are springing up all over town; a middle class is rising with all its accoutrements- restaurants, shops with the latest fashions, chic ladies perambulating. Crime remains a real problem, especially after nightfall, but during the day people walk around at a sharp pace, many of the men in suits and ties, despite the humidity, pursuing their work and their business interests with an intensity that reminds a visitor of New York. Nevertheless, there are serious tensions and rifts within Nigeria. The worst are in the oil-producing Delta. The militants seem to have lost sight of their original cause, which was to persuade recalcitrant local governments and the oil companies to improve the lot of the local people. Today, armed to the teeth, they are terrifying both foreign workers and local, stealing oil, buying more guns and spending their loot on expensive cars. Obasanjo never seemed to get a grip on this problem. Yar ‘Adua is trying a different approach. “By patient negotiation”, he told me, adding “You know Obasanjo with his military manner was not very good at patience.”

It is too early to say if this will bear fruit, but he has had one important success. Two weeks’ ago it was announced that Shell was puling out of Oganiland, the tribal area of the human rights campaigner and poet Ken Saro-Wiwa, whom the military regime executed for stirring up protests. Then there were 10 years of stalemate, with the Ogani people refusing to allow Shell to continue drilling. Shell will now be replaced by another oil company.

Foreign affairs columnist, film-maker and author

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