November 2010

Will historians a hundred years hence look at the end of the twentieth century much as we now look at the end of the nineteenth and say, “unfortunately the peace and prosperity of that moment was but an interlude before the bloodiest century in mankind’s history?” Will they conclude, as Aldous Huxley did, that “Every road towards a better state of society is blocked, sooner or later, by war, by threats of war, preparations for war? That is the truth, the odious and unacceptable truth.” Is it? Last weekend’s successful Nato summit with Russia in attendance showed that old tensions can be buried. The agreement to work together on missile defence and other military issues shows that both presidents Barack Obama and Dimitri Mevedev understand the need to cooperate to maintain and further their peace unlike their immediate predecessors. Nevertheless, the pessimists of our day have grist for their mill...

Just before he died at the end of the twentieth century, the philosopher Isaiah Berlin said, “It was the worst century that Europe ever had. Worse, I suspect, even than the days of the Huns. And why? Because in our modern age nationalism is not resurgent; it never died. Neither did racism. They are the most powerful movements in the world today cutting across many social systems”. In his book “Pandemonium”, the late Daniel Patrick Moynihan observed that “there are just eight states on earth which both existed in 1914 and have not had their form of government changed by violence since then”. These are the U.S., Britain, Australia, Canada, South Africa, Switzerland, Sweden and New Zealand. “The defining mode of conflict in the era ahead is ethnic conflict”, wrote Moynihan. “It promises to be savage. Get ready for 50 new countries in the world in the next 50 years....

when in a flurry of diplomatic activity over the Spratlys, Chinese premier, Zhu Rongji, worked his way round the Southeast Asian countries which also lay claim to the islands. Even this month there have been naval exercises  in the South China SeaThe trip was only a partial success. Mr Zhu did his best with a tight brief to give the impression that China is more interested in conciliation than conflict. Nevertheless, his spokesman indicated that China is not prepared to modify its total and exclusive claim to “the historic waters” of the South China Sea. Even in recent months there have near clashes between China and the Philippines – and, long continuing, China has verbally clashed with Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and the Philippines. All of the smaller countries are united in believing that the threat from China will continue to hang over them until there is a binding legal...

The country most advanced in dealing with the interrelated problems of child trafficking and prostitution is Sweden. Helene Karle, the secretary general of the Swedish branch of Ecpat, a world wide organization based in Bangkok to counter the commercial sexual exploitation of children, told me of two horrific incidents. The first was of a brothel in Thailand which caught fire. They found the bodies of 12-15 year old girls tied to the beds. A second was of an 11 year old girl killed by a man with a vibrator that broke inside her vagina. Neighbours, hearing her cries in the dark, rushed her to hospital but it was too late. She had lost too much blood. Both of these incidents were girls “serving” foreign tourists. According to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, “Several million people are the victims of human trafficking every year. About 80% is related to...