LONDON–Almost a year after the British left Hong Kong this self-contained part of China– the Special Administrative Region to be precise–goes to the polls. Against the din of India’s nuclear explosion, the slow, but probably sure, toppling of Sukarno in Indonesia and the economic crisis in east Asia (which is now spilling over into Hong Kong) the question of how much democracy is going to be allowed to be practised in Hong Kong seems to be on everyone’s back-burner. Even the people of Hong Kong, who not that long ago came out on the streets en masse (one million out of a population of six million) to protest the killings in Tiananman Square, seem subdued- -or resigned.
Perhaps this is a good sign. The transition from British to Chinese rule has gone not with a bang but a whimper in large measure because Beijing has been extraordinarily sensitive about not rocking the boat once the union jack was run down last June. It sure rocked the boat in the years just before that but, arguably, that was because Hong Kong’s last British governor, Chris Patten, decided to whip up the storm waves first. He was determined, in the short five years of his tenure, to do what the British had inexcusably failed to do in their previous 132 years of rule, make it a viable democracy.
Perhaps, as time passes, historians will come to judge Patten’s battle as no more than shots across the bow of a big ship with its own speed. After all, they will say, Beijing all along accepted that Hong Kong will evolve into a one person one vote democracy. By the year 2007, less than a decade away now, Beijing has promised that half the seats in the legislature will be directly elected and there will also be then direct elections of the chief executive. Patten wanted to accelerate this and for a brief two year period he managed to give democratic participation a big push forward. But Beijing on taking power did what it had forewarned and rolled back the reforms to match the original timetable. Thus on Sunday there will be elections, but of modest proportions, for a legislature with only 20 of the 60 seats up for direct vote.
At this point it is impossible to divine Beijing’s democratic intentions, whether it will slow down or even speed up this timetable. It has got away with its rollback policy without sizeable street protests or that much outside concern. If no one outside, not London nor Washington nor Asia’s democracies, has the spine for a real fight over the pace of democracy in Hong Kong then it is perhaps understandable that the ex-colony’s democracy activists feel they’ve had the wind taken out of their sails.
Beijing, to boot, has been rather clever. It has not visibly intervened in Hong Kong’s affairs. The press is still free. Nothing has been shut down; no editors summarily fired. The bill of rights remains in force. The rule of law, an essential ingredient in Hong Kong’s economic success, has not been tampered with. Corruption of the kind where the sons and daughters of the Chinese communist hierarchy would get inside deals in Hong Kong, a much feared scenario, has not come to pass. Only the move to protect some Chinese state bodies from Hong Kong laws–such as exempting the Xinhua press agency from a civil case on privacy–has provided grist for the repression mill, and that’s not much given Beijing’s long-standing policy of quarantining Hong Kong’s liberalism from infecting mainland institutions. Beijing has always feared Hong Kong might become a wooden horse.
On balance, it seems Beijing has made its peace with its own slogan, demanding as it is, “one country, two systems”. Certainly, the present attitude seems light years away from the antagonism of the late Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader who told his negociators “watch the British, lest they abscond with the capital”. Not only have the Chinese found the British had not stolen the family silver, they had in fact bequeathed a territory that was in full running order–the world’s third most important financial centre, the world’s biggest container port and the generator of 60-80% of the foreign capital that enters China, not to mention a level of educational achievement and social well-being that compares favourably with western Europe.
Moreover, long-term self-interest dictates Beijing’s solicitous behaviour. Beyond Hong Kong is Taiwan, the ultimate reunification quest. Now China can tell Taiwan that it has nothing to fear–even a fully developed democracy could be absorbed respectfully and peacefully.
All this suggests that the powers-that-be in Communist China feel relaxed about being relaxed. Which is maybe why, once this election is over, if the democrats push for Hong Kong to be as democratic as Taiwan, sooner rather than later, they could surprise themselves and find the door pushes open.
