“Symbolic or shallow democracy will be the only
outcome when foreigners impose elections under extremely
adverse circumstances as is the case in Dayton-Bosnia. They
could even be dangerous in their consequences because some
local results are likely to be implemented by force. One
increasingly wonders whether the international community is
in Bosnia for the sake of the people living there or to
uphold an illusory image of itself as effective post-Cold
War conflict-“managers” – says TFF’s director, Jan Oberg who
has followed the situation since February 1992 as head of
the foundation’s conflict-mitigation team to all parts of
former Yugoslavia.

– “The leading Croatian party, the Bosnian branch of
President Tudjman’s HDZ in Zagreb, has suggested to its
members and voters to boycott the elections. It argues that
the conditions for fair and free elections are not in place
and complain that international election officials favour
Muslims over Croats in disputes about voter registration.
And it accuses OSCE of “gerrymandering” in Mostar.

– This emphasises what international media’s
non-attention hides but any serious observer knows, namely
that the Federation between Muslims and Croats established
in March 1994 still belongs to the world of fiction.

– The present situation in Republika Srpska, RS, fulfils
all conditions for a coup, outbreak of serious violence or a
civil war. I am pretty sure,” predicts Jan Oberg, “that it
will fall apart. Indeed, that could well be part of an
unwritten longterm “gentlemen’s agreement”. Be this as it
may, the power-struggling Serbs offer once again
international media and the international authorities in
Bosnia a reason to blame Pale for the stalling,
crisis-ridden Dayton process. And quite predictably, they
now also boycott the elections. So, four days before the
elections two of the three largest parties are out, free not
to respect election results later.

– The present situation is also caused by the Western
governments which did absolutely nothing to support civil
society, dissidents, non-nationalists, NGOs and independent
media anywhere in ex-Yugoslavia between 1990 and end of
1995. It dealt exclusively with the top political, military
and economic echelons in all republics, those responsible
for the catastrophe. Dayton is a deal with them, not with
the citizens. Western governments were conspicuously
lukewarm when PEOPLE demonstrated for democracy and against
election fraud in Serbia.

– You simply cannot impose democracy, it must also be
built from below. Democracy as a goal requires democratic
means. Non-nationalist parties and truly free media have
still not developed to wield any real power in any republic.
The international community, the US in particular, should
recognise that it shares the responsibility for this
deplorable situation and stop its slightly conceited and
continual blaming and threatening of the local parties.

– NATO/SFOR and OSCE are now in the business of
implementing censorship. Serb radio stations are closed down
by force, not because they are nationalist or
party-controlled but because they air “anti-Dayton
propaganda”. As a matter of principle this is a very unwise
step. It is hardly compatible with the promotion of free
media, and I doubt that any NATO/SFOR government would
accept that foreigners closed down media in their country.
If the international community had implemented an early and
effective strategy for supporting civil society and
democratic forces, there would be little reason today to
fear that the citizens of Bosnia would buy such propaganda,”
Jan Oberg points out.

– “It must be remembered that the Bosnian Serbs had no
influence on the Dayton Agreement and can not be obliged to
show moral commitment to it. Furthermore, throughout the
most powerful Western media Dr. Karadzic, who is indicted
but neither proved guilty nor convicted, is cast in the
image of the world’s most hated person, the No 1 war
criminal since 1945. As a legitimately elected politician he
was isolated by the international community and effectively
prevented from speaking or defending himself. This is done
in contravention of the statute of the Hague War Crimes
Tribunal which states in para 21.3 that “the accused shall
be presumed innocent until proved guilty according to the
provisions of the present Statute.” So why act surprised
when he and his followers show that they are cross with the
international community?

– “This coming weekend’s elections are likely again be
free and fraud,” Jan Oberg believes and warns that a worse
threat is looming in consequence of the elections:

– “There is a high risk that elections will go from the
ballot to the bullet. Some municipalities in RS are likely
to get large minority or majority Muslim and/or Croat votes
and, likewise, municipalities in the Federation will get
large Serb minority or majority votes. This is so because of
the unfortunate idea that those who were driven away shall
also vote and thereby hopefully re-create a multiethnic
Bosnia — a principle deliberately not applied by the
international community to the elections in Croatia.

– After the elections we will see in at least some of
these places that those who voted are not there and are not
coming and that newly elected politicians are not there and
don’t dare to go there. The next step could well be that
winning parties will insist on the result and escort their
elected delegates to “the other side” by their own police.
Hardliners on both sides will know how to take
countermeasures and violent events spread, eventually beyond
control. So, the implementation of the election results will
depend on who runs what police or secret service and
where.

Are NATO/SFOR/OSCE really ready to escort such newly
elected members of local assemblies — and get even deeper
down into the quagmire? And will they simultaneously
keep on trying to convince the rest of the world that they
will pull out next year when everything will be fine?”