The great European refugee crisis

/10/jonathanpower2.jpg”>

Europeans really shouldn’t be worrying about the number of refugees trying to gatecrash Europe by travelling in rickety boats across the Mediterranean. The recent tragedies have the effect of inflating in our minds the numbers. In truth the numbers are not overwhelming.

The present almighty flap was triggered when, on October 3rd, 360 refugees died when their boat sank off the coast of the Italian island of Lampedusa.

Over the last two decades 20,000 migrants are estimated to have died attempting to cross the Mediterranean. That’s only 200 a year. In Italy that’s less people than drown in the whole country. Most come on safer land routes.

In 2011 there were 300,000 applicants for asylum in the EU. Last year it grew, as Syria erupted, to 333,000. If every one of the 28 EU countries did its bit by taking in a few it would only amount to 12,000 each. In fact the bigger countries could easily take double that and the smaller ones could take half.

Sweden has just announced that it is giving asylum to 17,000 Syrians. Moreover, it is issuing them with permanent residency papers straight away which means they can go out and look for a job. That is the way to go.

It has been a bad few years with serious violent turmoil in the Arab Middle East and North Africa. From West to East, it has been so in Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq and Syria. But not in Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon (some as Syria spills over), Turkey, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Indeed Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon are known for their hospitality to refugees.

In the immediate future, for the next two years at least, there are likely to be tens more thousands of Iraqi, Syrian and Somali refugees.

Again do the maths. Shared around Europe another 100,000 a year is not that much if every country does its bit and faces down its racists and xenophobes. One should recall how a British Conservative government in 1972 opened its doors to 60,000 fleeing Asian Ugandans, kicked out by the crazed dictator, Idi Amin. Switch on BBC World, look at the presenters and reporters and see where their children are today.

A great mistake made in the immigration debate is to conflate the numbers of refugees with immigrants coming to look for work. Most refugees are better educated and, if allowed, which often they are not, find work. Many of them want to go home if their country finds its feet again and before their children put down new roots.

Another sleight of the statistical hand is that in some countries- the UK, Holland, Germany and France particularly- xenophobic politicians add to the grand total of immigrants those EU internal migrants who are free, according to European law, to move wherever they want. In the last few years it has been mainly Poles and Romanians. But most of the Poles, having saved up enough to buy a flat, have already gone home to an economy that has weathered the current economic crisis better than most. Hopefully, the Romanians will get their economy in better shape in the next few years and go home too.

As the economic crisis in the EU is overcome the likely faster growing countries- the UK, Holland, Belgium, Austria, Germany and the Scandinavian countries- will be glad to welcome immigrants from those still mired in crisis in the southern members. Most are well educated or have good skills.

Third World economic, non-refugee, would-be immigrants do not travel far from home unless the grapevine tells them there are jobs. At the moment few are attempting their usual perilous journeys. To get worked up about what has been and assume it will always be like that is to totally misread how immigration works. Moreover, to fear “Islamisation” is to ignore the evidence that Muslim immigration for jobs peaked long ago (and the Muslim birth-rate inside the EU is falling fast).

Of course, once the European economy improves, economic migrants will start wanting to come again. Tensions and animosity will rise in the receiving countries. The answer to that is not more barriers which just lead to trafficking and exploitation even, with some, near slavery. It is to make the home society less beholden to economic immigrants to do the dirty, ill-paid jobs and to look after the native old which locals don’t like to do. This means improving the quality and pay of low paid jobs, boosting job-retraining and increasing the number of natives in the workforce by raising the retirement age to 70. It also means giving aid and dismantling trade barriers so sending countries can develop faster and end up like Mexico which these days hardly exports any workers to the US.

Perspective is everything.

Copyright: Jonathan Power 2013

Foreign affairs columnist, film-maker and author

Share

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Posts

Af Svenska Irakkommittén mot de Ekonomiska Sanktionerna (SIES) 13 september 2002 FN:s ekonomiska sanktioner mot Irak har nu pågått i tolv år och drabbat det irakiska folket med svåra lidanden. Enligt FN:s egna siffror har mer än 1,5 miljoner människor, varav ca 600 000 barn, dött som en direkt följd av sanktionerna. Dessutom har ett lågintensivt bombkrig mot landet pågått under dessa år. Av all denna förödelse- orsakad huvudsakligen av amerikansk och brittisk politik- har Saddam Husseins brutala och diktatoriska regim snarast stärkts än försvagats. Nu förbereder USA under president Bushs ledning ett storskaligt bombkrig mot Irak som kommer att innebära ett ännu större lidande för civilbefolkningen. Ett sådant krig kommer dessutom att ytterligare undergräva freden och säkerheten i världen. Att upprätta en demokratisk regim i Irak är det irakiska folkets angelägenhet och får enligt folkrätten inte ske med krigshandlingar utifrån. Folkrätten och FN:s stadgar måste respekteras. Vi vädjar till...
PRESS RELEASE – 6 OCTOBER 2025 LAY DOWN YOUR ARMSPEACE PRIZE FOR 2025 is awarded Francesca Albanese The United Nations Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories – as the person who, in accordance with Alfred Nobel’s will, has “done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations and for the abolition or reduction of standing armies as well as for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.” Francesca Albanese has forcefully and unwaveringly worked against Israel’s full-scale war on the occupied Palestinian territories, in particular Israel´s ongoing genocide against the Palestinian people. She has confronted Israel’s systematic war crimes and crimes against humanity in a truly global outreach. Further, she has brought governments, international organisations and people’s groups together to underline the responsibility of the world at large to act and to stop arming, enabling, and profiting from Israel’s ongoing criminal actions. But first of all, Albanese...

Recent Articles

Af Svenska Irakkommittén mot de Ekonomiska Sanktionerna (SIES) 13 september 2002 FN:s ekonomiska sanktioner mot Irak har nu pågått i tolv år och drabbat det irakiska folket med svåra lidanden. Enligt FN:s egna siffror har mer än 1,5 miljoner människor, varav ca 600 000 barn, dött som en direkt följd av sanktionerna. Dessutom har ett lågintensivt bombkrig mot landet pågått under dessa år. Av all denna förödelse- orsakad huvudsakligen av amerikansk och brittisk politik- har Saddam Husseins brutala och diktatoriska regim snarast stärkts än försvagats. Nu förbereder USA under president Bushs ledning ett storskaligt bombkrig mot Irak som kommer att innebära ett ännu större lidande för civilbefolkningen. Ett sådant krig kommer dessutom att ytterligare undergräva freden och säkerheten i världen. Att upprätta en demokratisk regim i Irak är det irakiska folkets angelägenhet och får enligt folkrätten inte ske med krigshandlingar utifrån. Folkrätten och FN:s stadgar måste respekteras. Vi vädjar till...
Peace will not result from any “peace” plan circulated to date. Neither will it emerge from warfare – as the elites of NATO, EU, Russia, and Ukraine seem to finally recognise after avoidable, unspeakable losses of people, trust and physical, socio-economic destruction. And horse-trading based on military ‘security’ guarantees reveals only peace and conflict illiteracy. TFF is critical of the widespread and severe misuse of the word peace – as if it did not require any knowledge. But we do not engage in geopolitical-military commentarism or dismissive criticism of present-day Realpolitik and its militarist mindset. Indeed, we do not believe that mainstream political and media elites are aware that they know woefully little about peace and peace-making or see it as a professional field. Thus, we do not expect they would acquaint themselves with a portfolio like this. TFF concentrates on constructive, visionary thinking grounded in the science and art of peace and in our 40 years...

TFF on Substack

Discover more from TFF Transnational Foundation & Jan Oberg.

Most Popular

Af Svenska Irakkommittén mot de Ekonomiska Sanktionerna (SIES) 13 september 2002 FN:s ekonomiska sanktioner mot Irak har nu pågått i tolv år och drabbat det irakiska folket med svåra lidanden. Enligt FN:s egna siffror har mer än 1,5 miljoner människor, varav ca 600 000 barn, dött som en direkt följd av sanktionerna. Dessutom har ett lågintensivt bombkrig mot landet pågått under dessa år. Av all denna förödelse- orsakad huvudsakligen av amerikansk och brittisk politik- har Saddam Husseins brutala och diktatoriska regim snarast stärkts än försvagats. Nu förbereder USA under president Bushs ledning ett storskaligt bombkrig mot Irak som kommer att innebära ett ännu större lidande för civilbefolkningen. Ett sådant krig kommer dessutom att ytterligare undergräva freden och säkerheten i världen. Att upprätta en demokratisk regim i Irak är det irakiska folkets angelägenhet och får enligt folkrätten inte ske med krigshandlingar utifrån. Folkrätten och FN:s stadgar måste respekteras. Vi vädjar till...
Peace will not result from any “peace” plan circulated to date. Neither will it emerge from warfare – as the elites of NATO, EU, Russia, and Ukraine seem to finally recognise after avoidable, unspeakable losses of people, trust and physical, socio-economic destruction. And horse-trading based on military ‘security’ guarantees reveals only peace and conflict illiteracy. TFF is critical of the widespread and severe misuse of the word peace – as if it did not require any knowledge. But we do not engage in geopolitical-military commentarism or dismissive criticism of present-day Realpolitik and its militarist mindset. Indeed, we do not believe that mainstream political and media elites are aware that they know woefully little about peace and peace-making or see it as a professional field. Thus, we do not expect they would acquaint themselves with a portfolio like this. TFF concentrates on constructive, visionary thinking grounded in the science and art of peace and in our 40 years...
Read More
Imagen-thumbnail-The-Transnational-1
Af Svenska Irakkommittén mot de Ekonomiska Sanktionerna (SIES) 13 september 2002 FN:s ekonomiska sanktioner mot Irak har nu pågått i tolv år och drabbat det irakiska folket med svåra lidanden. Enligt FN:s egna siffror har mer än 1,5 miljoner människor, varav ca 600 000 barn, dött som en direkt följd av sanktionerna. Dessutom har ett lågintensivt bombkrig mot landet pågått under dessa år. Av all denna förödelse- orsakad huvudsakligen av amerikansk och brittisk politik- har Saddam Husseins brutala och diktatoriska regim snarast stärkts än försvagats. Nu förbereder USA under president Bushs ledning ett storskaligt bombkrig mot Irak som kommer att innebära ett ännu större lidande för civilbefolkningen. Ett sådant krig kommer dessutom att ytterligare undergräva freden och säkerheten i världen. Att upprätta en demokratisk regim i Irak är det irakiska folkets angelägenhet och får enligt folkrätten inte ske med krigshandlingar utifrån. Folkrätten och FN:s stadgar måste respekteras. Vi vädjar till...
TFFPortfolioVign
Peace will not result from any “peace” plan circulated to date. Neither will it emerge from warfare – as the elites of NATO, EU, Russia, and Ukraine seem to finally recognise after avoidable, unspeakable losses of people, trust and physical, socio-economic destruction. And horse-trading based on military ‘security’ guarantees reveals only peace and conflict illiteracy. TFF is critical of the widespread and severe misuse of the word peace – as if it did not require any knowledge. But we do not engage in geopolitical-military commentarism or dismissive criticism of present-day Realpolitik and its militarist mindset. Indeed, we do not believe that mainstream political and media elites are aware that they know woefully little about peace and peace-making or see it as a professional field. Thus, we do not expect they would acquaint themselves with a portfolio like this. TFF concentrates on constructive, visionary thinking grounded in the science and art of peace and in our 40 years...
BlackNobel
OK, Trump did not get it. But he got a full endorsement of a possible future US regime change in Venezuela. And that is what Ms Machado has advocated. On October 10, 2025, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded its Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition figure María Corina Machado. The citation praised her “tireless work promoting democratic rights.” But Ms Machado has openly called for U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, stating on CBS: “The only way to stop the suppression is by force—U.S. force.” She or her party has received funding from the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a U.S. government-backed body known as a CIA front organisation and for supporting regime-change operations worldwide. And in 2018, she sent a letter to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, asking him to use “force and influence” to help dismantle Venezuela’s government—citing alleged ties to terrorism, Iran and narcotrafficking. This year’s NATO Norwegian prize...
Screenshot-2025-10-08-163458
PRESS RELEASE – 6 OCTOBER 2025 LAY DOWN YOUR ARMSPEACE PRIZE FOR 2025 is awarded Francesca Albanese The United Nations Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories – as the person who, in accordance with Alfred Nobel’s will, has “done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations and for the abolition or reduction of standing armies as well as for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.” Francesca Albanese has forcefully and unwaveringly worked against Israel’s full-scale war on the occupied Palestinian territories, in particular Israel´s ongoing genocide against the Palestinian people. She has confronted Israel’s systematic war crimes and crimes against humanity in a truly global outreach. Further, she has brought governments, international organisations and people’s groups together to underline the responsibility of the world at large to act and to stop arming, enabling, and profiting from Israel’s ongoing criminal actions. But first of all, Albanese...
Copilot_20251003_003414
Officially, the drones were not identified. By simply thinking critically – which journalists and selected experts no longer do – there may be a good reason for that. And this article will never be mentioned in Denmark… Drones over Denmark. No damage. No trace. No answers. Yet the headlines scream “Russian threat,” and Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen speaks with a certainty that defies logic: “We don’t know they were Russian—but we know Russia is the biggest threat to Europe.” It could be nobody else – unless you make an interest analysis which I did two days ago. This is not security policy. It’s theatre. And the audience is being played. Let’s rewind. These drones—unphotographed, untracked, unclaimed—appear and vanish like ghosts. Airports shut down. Panic spreads. Military budgets swell. And the narrative hardens: Russia is behind it. But what if that’s not just wrong but deliberately misleading? Here’s a hypothesis for...