TFF PressInfo # 325 - Hur Västvärlden bröt sina löften till Ryssland

beslöt att inte låtsas om de löften som Västs ledare i slutet av det kalla kriget gav sina sovjetiska/ryska kollegor.

Det var oetiskt och – som Power med viktiga hänvisningar hävdar – en politisk tabbe av historiska proportioner.

Hans berättelse förklarar varför Väst inte heller är oskyldigt i fråga om den aktuella Ukrainakrisen – i sin tur åstadkommen genom en annan tabbe: försöket att byta regim i Kiev och få in Ukraina i det kärnvapenbaserade NATO.

Blankt förnekande sin egen inblandning börjar politiskt korrekta västmedier, politiker och Natohöjdare lämpligt nog sin historia med att Ryssland annekterade Krim som en blixt från klar himmel.

Power säger: ≫Historien kommer inte att se välvilligt på NATOs farliga och kontraproduktiva utvidgning≪.

Jan Öberg

Rysslands Europablickande drömmare har räknat in Pusjkin, Lenin, Gorbatjov och, tills rätt nyligen, president Vladimir Putin. Alla har de sett sitt lands framtid som en del av ≫det europeiska huset≪.

Men historiens tilldragelser har inte varit nådiga mot Ryssland. Napoleons invasion, revolution, två världskrig, Stalins kommunism och – senast – Natos utvidgning; allt detta har krossat drömmen gång på gång.

I slutet av kalla kriget, i och med överenskommelsen om en grundstadga mellan Nato och Ryssland (Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation), såg det ut som om jättekliv mot detta mål togs. Till att börja med skulle Ryssland få säte vid NATOs bord, senare skulle de få komma med i NATO och ännu senare i Europeiska unionen. Somliga förutsåg att detta skulle inträffa inom en tioårsperiod, andra trodde på tjugo år.

Men sedan – pang! – sprack drömmen när president Bill Clinton, uppbackad av USAs akademiska elit på utrikespolitikens område, beslöt att utvidga NATO genom att göra forna medlemmar av Sovjetunionens Warszawapakt till medlemmar.

George Kennan, amerikansk nestor på Rysslandsfrågor, kommenterade: “Det visar på en mycket ringa förståelse för rysk och sovjetisk historia. Det är klart att Ryssland kommer att reagera surt. Sedan kommer NATO-utvidgarna att säga, att ‘Vi sa ju, att såna är de, ryssarna’. Men det är bara så fel”.

De som försvarar Clinton och senare George W Bush och Barack Obama, som fortsatte politiken att utvidga Nato; de hävdar att Natoutvidgningen österut ingalunda bröt något löfte till Moskva om att inte utvidga.

Men det gjorde den.

Som förre Sovjetpresidenten Michail Gorbatjov vid flera tillfällen sagt, fanns det ett löfte om att inte expandera NATO “så mycket som en tumsbredd österut”.

Detta är ett eko av förre amerikanske utrikesministern James Bakers tal i Katarinasalen i Kreml den 9 februari 1990, då han sa att det blir “ingen utvidgning av NATOs jurisdiktion över NATO-styrkor en enda tum österut”.

Det har förekommit en del omskrivningar av historien. Nu gör Baker tvetydiga förnekanden av att någon sådan överenskommelse skulle finnas.

Man har till och med försökt påvisa att Gorbatjov själv förnekar att en sådan överenskommelse fanns. Det stämmer att han de senaste åren sagt än det ena, än det andra. Kanske för att han är generad över att han aldrig bad att få de amerikansk-tyska åtagandena skriftligt.

Det har han försvarat med argumentet att “Warszawapakten fortfarande fanns i början av 1990. Blotta antydan att NATO skulle utvidgas in i paktens medlemsstater hade låtit helt befängt vid den tiden”.

Icke desto mindre är bevisen på att en sådan överenskommelse gjordes starka.

Rodrick Braithwaite, då brittisk ambassadör till Sovjetunionen och senare till Ryssland, har skrivit: “Sedan Tyskland återförenats uppfordrade den tjeckiske presidenten Václav Havel att Tjeckoslovakien, Polen och Ungern skulle gå med i NATO. Storbritanniens premiärminister och utrikesminister försäkrade sovjetiska ministrar, att någon sådan avsikt inte fanns. NATOs generalsekreterare tillade, att en utvidgning skulle skada förhållandet till Sovjetunionen”.

Jack Matlock, ambassadör i Moskva för både Ronald Reagan och George Bush den äldre, har vid åtskilliga tillfällen sagt, att Moskva meddelades ≫tydliga åtaganden≪ att NATO inte skulle expanderas.

Den tyska politiska veckotidningen Der Spiegel har gått igenom de tyska och brittiska läggen. De fann ett samtalsprotokoll från den 10 februari 1990, då utrikesminister Hans-Dietrich Genscher talade med den sovjetiske utrikesministern Eduard Sjevardnadze.

Genscher sa: “För oss är en sak klar: NATO ska inte utvidgas österut”. Emedan samtalet huvudsakligen rörde sig om Östtysklands framtid, tillade Genscher uttryckligen: ≫Såvitt NATOs icke-utvidgning angår, gäller detta även allmänt≪.

I ett viktigt tal som Genscher höll den 31 januari 1990 i Tutzing, sa han att det inte skulle bli “någon utvidgning av NATO österut. Med andra ord: närmare Sovjetunionens gränser”.

När den brittiske utrikesministern Douglas Hurd den 6 februari 1990 träffade Genscher för att diskutera det kommande fria valet i Ungern informerades han om, att Sovjetunionen behövde “den säkerheten att Ungern inte skulle bli en del av Västalliansen”. Genscher sa, att Kreml måste få garantier av det slaget. Det höll Hurd med om.

I april 2009 sa Gorbatjov till den tyska tidskriften Bild, att “Väst troligen gnuggade händerna, lyckliga över att ha blåst ryssarna”. Så ser det onekligen ut.

Dessutom upphävde USA omotiverat Salt 1-avtalet (Avtalet mellan Förenta Staterna och Sovjetunionen om begränsning av antiballistiska missilsystem) och beslöt därtill att gruppera robotförsvar (missilskjölden) i Centraleuropa och sålunda undergräva den så kallade ≫kärnvapenbalansen≪.

Väst har utnyttjat ett försvagat Ryssland i stället för att bana väg för Ryssland in i “det europeiska huset”.

Historien kommer inte att se välvilligt på NATOs farliga och kontraproduktiva utvidgning.

© Jonathan Power 2015

Översättning: Björn Forseth

Foreign affairs columnist, film-maker and author

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