Don't in Zaire Repeat the West's Mistakes in Angola

LONDON– The rapid and dangerous way things are going suggest that Zaire could very easily, like its sideshow Angola, become the scene of an unending civil war between the two rival protagonists.

In Zaire in the contest to succeed the dying president, Mobutu Sese Seko, we have in the capital Kinshasa, the ex-prime minister Etienne Tshisekedi, pulling out every stop to take over from his erstwhile boss. His charisma and organizational skills are formidable. Early this week he led a stunning strike which, for the breadth of a day, reduced the bustling, noisy, helter-skelter of life in the capital to an earie silence.

In the west is his rival for power, Laurent Kabila, who by force of arms has captured the most populous half of the country, taken over the diamond and copper mines, the main source of the country’s wealth and is now advancing on Kinshasa.

This is reminiscent of how civil war began in neighboring Angola 20 years ago. That time the Russians took one side and the American CIA, under the orders of Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, the other. The ratcheting up of civil war by the Cold War antagonists ended up with one side, the MPLA, the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, today the government, bringing in the Cubans and the other side, UNITA, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, bringing in the South Africans. The civil war so exhausted and drained the country that the World Bank concluded that “there was no economic activity to measure.”

In the end the Cubans fought the South Africans to a standstill. The Bush administration in Washington with the Gorbachev administration’s help in Moscow arbitrated a peace agreement that got the South Africans and Cubans

removed, gave its blessing to the MPLA as the party of government and gave Jonas Savimbi’s guerrillas of UNITA a role in the capital as the formal opposition. Last week the war was supposedly finally concluded after the inauguration of a government of national unity.

Yet Savimbi still holds back–thanks to his old friend, President Mobutu. Savimbi declined to attend last week’s ceremony, though his representatives did. Instead, with Mobutu continuing as before to keep him well stocked in arms, he is deploying UNITA guerrillas against Kabila. To match this the official Angolan government has dispatched contingents of its army to Kabila’s side.

Hence the ongoing “murderous violence in the pregnant land of Africa,” to quote the Portuguese novelist, Antonio Lota Antune who wrote so acutely about Angola’s incommunicable image of war in his “South of Nowhere.”

Zaire, thanks to the spirits who watch over Africa, no longer has to contend with superpower backers, but there remains a danger that it could end up with the U.S. on the side of Kabila and the French and the Belgians with their historically larger stakes in the old order in Zaire backing Tshisekedi. But even if the western powers decide to be sensible and cooperate the elements for another great African feud are all too clearly in place. These days, given the easy availability of arms, one doesn’t need an official “backer” to get one’s hands on murderous amounts.

If the lesson of Angola is don’t start a civil war the lesson of the twentieth century is that “most civil wars have only ended with the outright military victory of one side over the other.” So writes Charles King in a study published this week by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He goes on to observe that “military victory in civil wars is often associated with widespread human rights abuses, atrocities, genocide, environmental degradation and a host of other ills which make reconstruction and political reconciliation especially difficult.”

His argument should be cold water for those outsiders who think anything could be gained by trying to tip the scales one way or another in the Zairean power struggle. The chance of success would be slim and the price of failure great. Once civil war starts it is extraordinarily difficult to stop and then, as Professor King observes, a negociated settlement, even if it can be reached, may be inherently unstable, as appears to be the case in Angola.

Thus now is the time for outsiders to stand back from partisanship and instead deploy their joint resources to broker a compromise before the rivals spill blood. They must throw their weight without reserve behind the rather clever UN arbitrator, Mohammed Sahnoun. An election where the contenders face off must be the common goal. Meanwhile, for a year or so a government of national unity is necessary to keep the country ticking over and to give time to organise an honest ballot.

Outsiders, principally America to begin with, pulled apart Angola’s power sharing commitment to hold elections in 1975. It would be a tragedy to repeat that appalling mistake in Zaire today. Hopefully by now everyone should know better. But do they?

Foreign affairs columnist, film-maker and author

Share

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Posts

Peace is promoted by constructive proposals and dialogue Four preceding PressInfos have expressed concern over — and criticised — the ongoing, militarisation of the EU. Some will say: but there are no alternatives. We believe that there are always alternatives, that democracies are characterised by alternatives and choice, and that openly discussed alternatives will improve the quality and legitimacy of society’s decision–making. In addition, it is an intellectual and moral challenge to not only criticise but also be constructive. If we only tell people that we think they are wrong, they are not likely to listen. However, if we say: what are your views on this set of ideas and steps? — we may sometimes engage them in dialogue and sow a seed. Most people in power circles live their daily lives in in a time frame and a social space where certain ideas, viewpoints and concepts are just not...
Photos © TFF 2000 Read PressInfo 90 “Lift the Sanctions and Bring More Aid to Yugoslavia” See Pictures from Belgrade © TFF 2000 Please reprint, copy, archive, quote or re-post this item, but please retain the source.
Av FRANK SØHOLM GREVIL 16 augusti 2004  Vi er nu nået til tredje akt i det absurde teaterstykke, der i analogi med de store skueprocesser i Moskva 1936-38 er blevet døbt ‘Grevil-sagen’. Første akt bestod i min anonyme fremlæggelse af egenhændigt nedklassificerede rapporter i Berlingske Tidende i februar og marts. Andet akt udgjordes af min fremtræden med navn og billede i Information i april samt den efterfølgende mediestorm, som uden min direkte medvirken kostede en forsvarsminister taburetten samt en sigtelse for brud på tavshedspligten. Tredje akt bliver en retssag, hvor jeg står tiltalt for at have overtrådt straffelovens bestemmelser om uberettiget videregivelse eller udnyttelse af fortrolige oplysninger. Statsanklageren har ovenikøbet valgt at påberåbe sig særligt skærpende omstændigheder. Da jeg aldrig har modtaget betaling for at stille rapporterne til rådighed eller lade mig interviewe, må det skærpende bestå i, at “videregivelsen eller udnyttelsen er sket under sådanne omstændigheder, at det påfører...

Recent Articles

PressInfo # 141, December 21, 2001It’s time to prepare reconciliation between Albanians and Serbs PressInfo # 140, December 14, 2001Ibrahim Rugova’s decade-long leadership in Kosovo/a PressInfo # 139, 11. december, 2001En god nyhet: Jugoslaviens Sannings- och försoningskommission PressInfo # 139, 11. december, 2001Gode nyheder: Jugoslaviens Sandheds- og Forsoningskommission PressInfo # 139, December 11, 2001Good news: Yugoslavia’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission PressInfo # 138, November 8, 2001TFF co-founder PhD with thesis about young people with roots in other cultures PressInfo # 138, November 8, 2001TFF:s medstiftare doktor på avhandling om unga med ursprung i andra kulturer PressInfo # 137, October 17, 2001A new Marshall Plan: Advancing human security and controlling terrorism PressInfo # 136, October 15, 2001The UN and Annan really deserve it PressInfo # 135, October 10, 2001Preventing a terrorist mushroom cloud PressInfo # 134, 17 oktober, 2001Sverige og 11. september PressInfo # 134, October 9, 2001Sweden and September 11...
Peace is promoted by constructive proposals and dialogue Four preceding PressInfos have expressed concern over — and criticised — the ongoing, militarisation of the EU. Some will say: but there are no alternatives. We believe that there are always alternatives, that democracies are characterised by alternatives and choice, and that openly discussed alternatives will improve the quality and legitimacy of society’s decision–making. In addition, it is an intellectual and moral challenge to not only criticise but also be constructive. If we only tell people that we think they are wrong, they are not likely to listen. However, if we say: what are your views on this set of ideas and steps? — we may sometimes engage them in dialogue and sow a seed. Most people in power circles live their daily lives in in a time frame and a social space where certain ideas, viewpoints and concepts are just not...
Photos © TFF 2000 Read PressInfo 90 “Lift the Sanctions and Bring More Aid to Yugoslavia” See Pictures from Belgrade © TFF 2000 Please reprint, copy, archive, quote or re-post this item, but please retain the source.

TFF on Substack

Discover more from TFF Transnational Foundation & Jan Oberg.

Most Popular

PressInfo # 141, December 21, 2001It’s time to prepare reconciliation between Albanians and Serbs PressInfo # 140, December 14, 2001Ibrahim Rugova’s decade-long leadership in Kosovo/a PressInfo # 139, 11. december, 2001En god nyhet: Jugoslaviens Sannings- och försoningskommission PressInfo # 139, 11. december, 2001Gode nyheder: Jugoslaviens Sandheds- og Forsoningskommission PressInfo # 139, December 11, 2001Good news: Yugoslavia’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission PressInfo # 138, November 8, 2001TFF co-founder PhD with thesis about young people with roots in other cultures PressInfo # 138, November 8, 2001TFF:s medstiftare doktor på avhandling om unga med ursprung i andra kulturer PressInfo # 137, October 17, 2001A new Marshall Plan: Advancing human security and controlling terrorism PressInfo # 136, October 15, 2001The UN and Annan really deserve it PressInfo # 135, October 10, 2001Preventing a terrorist mushroom cloud PressInfo # 134, 17 oktober, 2001Sverige og 11. september PressInfo # 134, October 9, 2001Sweden and September 11...
Peace is promoted by constructive proposals and dialogue Four preceding PressInfos have expressed concern over — and criticised — the ongoing, militarisation of the EU. Some will say: but there are no alternatives. We believe that there are always alternatives, that democracies are characterised by alternatives and choice, and that openly discussed alternatives will improve the quality and legitimacy of society’s decision–making. In addition, it is an intellectual and moral challenge to not only criticise but also be constructive. If we only tell people that we think they are wrong, they are not likely to listen. However, if we say: what are your views on this set of ideas and steps? — we may sometimes engage them in dialogue and sow a seed. Most people in power circles live their daily lives in in a time frame and a social space where certain ideas, viewpoints and concepts are just not...
Photos © TFF 2000 Read PressInfo 90 “Lift the Sanctions and Bring More Aid to Yugoslavia” See Pictures from Belgrade © TFF 2000 Please reprint, copy, archive, quote or re-post this item, but please retain the source.
Read More
Imagen-thumbnail-The-Transnational-1
PressInfo # 141, December 21, 2001It’s time to prepare reconciliation between Albanians and Serbs PressInfo # 140, December 14, 2001Ibrahim Rugova’s decade-long leadership in Kosovo/a PressInfo # 139, 11. december, 2001En god nyhet: Jugoslaviens Sannings- och försoningskommission PressInfo # 139, 11. december, 2001Gode nyheder: Jugoslaviens Sandheds- og Forsoningskommission PressInfo # 139, December 11, 2001Good news: Yugoslavia’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission PressInfo # 138, November 8, 2001TFF co-founder PhD with thesis about young people with roots in other cultures PressInfo # 138, November 8, 2001TFF:s medstiftare doktor på avhandling om unga med ursprung i andra kulturer PressInfo # 137, October 17, 2001A new Marshall Plan: Advancing human security and controlling terrorism PressInfo # 136, October 15, 2001The UN and Annan really deserve it PressInfo # 135, October 10, 2001Preventing a terrorist mushroom cloud PressInfo # 134, 17 oktober, 2001Sverige og 11. september PressInfo # 134, October 9, 2001Sweden and September 11...
Imagen-thumbnail-The-Transnational-1
Peace is promoted by constructive proposals and dialogue Four preceding PressInfos have expressed concern over — and criticised — the ongoing, militarisation of the EU. Some will say: but there are no alternatives. We believe that there are always alternatives, that democracies are characterised by alternatives and choice, and that openly discussed alternatives will improve the quality and legitimacy of society’s decision–making. In addition, it is an intellectual and moral challenge to not only criticise but also be constructive. If we only tell people that we think they are wrong, they are not likely to listen. However, if we say: what are your views on this set of ideas and steps? — we may sometimes engage them in dialogue and sow a seed. Most people in power circles live their daily lives in in a time frame and a social space where certain ideas, viewpoints and concepts are just not...
Imagen-thumbnail-The-Transnational-1
Photos © TFF 2000 Read PressInfo 90 “Lift the Sanctions and Bring More Aid to Yugoslavia” See Pictures from Belgrade © TFF 2000 Please reprint, copy, archive, quote or re-post this item, but please retain the source.
Imagen-thumbnail-The-Transnational-1
Av FRANK SØHOLM GREVIL 16 augusti 2004  Vi er nu nået til tredje akt i det absurde teaterstykke, der i analogi med de store skueprocesser i Moskva 1936-38 er blevet døbt ‘Grevil-sagen’. Første akt bestod i min anonyme fremlæggelse af egenhændigt nedklassificerede rapporter i Berlingske Tidende i februar og marts. Andet akt udgjordes af min fremtræden med navn og billede i Information i april samt den efterfølgende mediestorm, som uden min direkte medvirken kostede en forsvarsminister taburetten samt en sigtelse for brud på tavshedspligten. Tredje akt bliver en retssag, hvor jeg står tiltalt for at have overtrådt straffelovens bestemmelser om uberettiget videregivelse eller udnyttelse af fortrolige oplysninger. Statsanklageren har ovenikøbet valgt at påberåbe sig særligt skærpende omstændigheder. Da jeg aldrig har modtaget betaling for at stille rapporterne til rådighed eller lade mig interviewe, må det skærpende bestå i, at “videregivelsen eller udnyttelsen er sket under sådanne omstændigheder, at det påfører...
Imagen-thumbnail-The-Transnational-1
Af Svenska Irakkommittén mot de Ekonomiska Sanktionerna (SIES) 13 september 2002 FN:s ekonomiska sanktioner mot Irak har nu pågått i tolv år och drabbat det irakiska folket med svåra lidanden. Enligt FN:s egna siffror har mer än 1,5 miljoner människor, varav ca 600 000 barn, dött som en direkt följd av sanktionerna. Dessutom har ett lågintensivt bombkrig mot landet pågått under dessa år. Av all denna förödelse- orsakad huvudsakligen av amerikansk och brittisk politik- har Saddam Husseins brutala och diktatoriska regim snarast stärkts än försvagats. Nu förbereder USA under president Bushs ledning ett storskaligt bombkrig mot Irak som kommer att innebära ett ännu större lidande för civilbefolkningen. Ett sådant krig kommer dessutom att ytterligare undergräva freden och säkerheten i världen. Att upprätta en demokratisk regim i Irak är det irakiska folkets angelägenhet och får enligt folkrätten inte ske med krigshandlingar utifrån. Folkrätten och FN:s stadgar måste respekteras. Vi vädjar till...