June 2021

Comment On June 26, I gave this comment to Iran’s PressTV concerning the drawn-out negotiations in Vienna. The US under Trump left the nuclear agreement – the JCPOA – unilaterally and all it has to do is, simply, to rejoin it unilaterally. It cannot have a legitimate role standing outside shouting in its demands on Iran. Iran’s position is clear and fair: lift the sanctions, stick to the JCPOA and Iran will immediately get back into full compliance. Indeed, what could there to talk about? – Oberg asks. Here is the link to the interview. NOTEIncidentally, I found out a couple of days later that what I say above is also what official China says (July 1, 2021).

There is a comprehensive, independent-minded “alternative” analysis of NATO’s crisis in general and the membership of North Macedonia in it. Dr Vankovska writes in the intro to her analysis that: “North Macedonia (hereafter in the text, Macedonia) was officially admitted to NATO on 27 March 2020 as its 30th member state. It was supposed to look like a dream come true for generations of Macedonian citizens and the political elites across the ethnic divides. However, the act was hardly met with any euphoria… Although Macedonia has joined NATO the political narrative and public (media and intellectual) rhetoric have not changed a bit. The military alliance is still seen through rose-coloured eyeglasses with not much relation to the objective state of affairs. It shows that the submissive and even naïve position in the mind and behaviour of the political elites is unlikely to change any time soon. Actually, they are still...

Empires come and go. Innovation, vision and power lead to their establishment. If they have good carrying capacity they spread, grow and mature. Their relative power begins to increase, ascendance in more than one field, then consolidation on top–a very dangerous moment when you are second to none–extension and peak and, sooner or later with over-extension–begins the decline, ’fatigue’, lack of innovation, vision and leadership, dissolution and unavoidable fall. All empires decline and fall none have lasted forever. The next – and last – empire to fall is God’s own exceptionalist country, the United States of America. The indicators are pretty obvious in all sectors including the Military-Industrial-Media-Academic Complex, MIMAC: Economic decline with uniquely high debts, muddling through with no vision (not an unclear vision but no vision) and trying to solve problems by just injecting money into a manifestly malfunctioning system instead of investing in structural changes. This article...

Lea has been working in the area of international relations since 2011. First, for the UN, later for a think tank on foreign policy and currently she is the Secretary-General of the UN Association in Switzerland. Originally from Switzerland, she lived in Russia and volunteered in humanitarian projects in Mongolia and Colombia. In 2017, she founded “PeacePrints – Following the Footprints of Peacebuilders” – a blog for which she travels as peace reporter to post-conflict countries to report about outstanding individuals committed to bringing a positive change. Here Lea speaks about her work and how important it is that we know, follow, learn from and honour those millions of fellow citizens around the world who cross borders, reach out and often risk their lives. Every day. And for peace.

Carsten Boyer ThøgersenTidligere kontorchef i Udenrigsministeriet og generalkonsul i Shanghai og Guangzhou 21. juni 2021 Nogle amerikanske iagttagere mener, at inddæmningen af Kina er begyndt alt for sent. Spørgsmålet er, om ”tidligt nok” overhovedet har været en mulighed, når det gælder inddæmning af næsten 20 pct. af jordens befolkning. Kina er – både økonomisk og teknologisk – en global magtfaktor, som Vesten er nødt til at forholde sig mere nuanceret til, end både politikere og medier gør det i dag. DER ER MANGE TING, man med rette kan kritisere Kina for. Det gør medierne, det er deres opgave, og det er velkomment. Men hvis det billede, der tegnes af Kina, er unuanceret, svækkes den viden og det grundlag, som vestlige lande nu og i de kommende år skal basere deres Kina-politik på. At styrke vores viden om Kina er ikke det samme som at forsvare Kina. Tværtimod er viden om...

Photo credit: uschinadialogue.georgetown.edu Tom Engelhardt June 10, 2021 Let me start with my friend and the boat. Admittedly, they might not seem to have anything to do with each other. The boat, a guided-missile destroyer named the USS Curtis Wilbur, reportedly passed through the Straits of Taiwan and into the South China Sea, skirting the Paracel Islands that China has claimed as its own. It represented yet another Biden-era challenge to the planet’s rising power from its falling one. My friend was thousands of miles away on the West Coast of the United States, well vaccinated and going nowhere in Covid-stricken but improving America. Published at juancole.com & Tomdispatch.com 06.07.2021 As it happens, she’s slightly younger than me, but still getting up there, and we were chatting on the phone about our world, about the all-too-early first wildfire near Los Angeles, the intensifying mega-drought across the West and Southwest, the increasing nightmare of hurricane season in the Atlantic and so on. We...

Photo credit: eurasia-news-online.com Tom Fowdy June 2, 2021 A US-led world order is still preferred by more countries than a Chinese one, says a new survey. However, disillusionment with Washington has risen across the globe due to its military adventurism and handling of Covid. One of the dominant themes of the 21st century has been the return of ‘great power’ politics. The contest for global supremacy between the United States and China. This battle heated up under Donald Trump, and has continued under Joe Biden. Both are eager to restore US primacy against the perceived challenge from Beijing. Originally published at eurasia-news-online.com But what do other countries make of it all? Do they prefer an American-led world order, or a Chinese one? Or is the answer more complex, with both countries having appealing qualities? A comprehensive new survey from the Eurasia Group Foundation, ‘Modeling Democracy’ delivers some fascinating insights, with people in...

About a Senate bill enshrining a zero-sum approach to Beijing that will surely set us on a course of escalation. Michael D. Swaine June 14, 2021 This is the first installment in a multi-part Responsible Statecraft series on the Strategic Competition Act (S. 1169), a bill under consideration that would effectively constitute a declaration of cold war on China by the U.S. Congress. We begin with an overview of the bill’s framing of the threat China poses to the United States and other nations and what to do about it. It will be followed by separate essays delving into greater detail analyzing the inaccurate assessments and policy changes suggested in several critical areas: Taiwan, the South China Sea maritime disputes, North Korea, educational exchanges, influence operations, and the Belt and Road Initiative. Originally published at responsiblestatecraft.org The Strategic Competition Act, recently approved by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, constitutes a de...

A previously censored account of the 1958 Taiwan Strait crisis that was sponsored by the Pentagon has been published in full by the leaker of the Pentagon Papers, Daniel Ellsberg. The report provides a hair-raising portrait of a reckless US military leadership relentlessly pressing President Dwight Eisenhower for the authority to carry out nuclear attacks on communist China. After holding the still-classified version of the account in his possession for fifty years, Ellsberg said he decided to release it because of the growing threat of US war with China over Taiwan, and the danger that such a conflict could escalate into a nuclear exchange. A May 22 New York Times report on the account offered only general details of the role the US Joint Chiefs of Staff played in the run-up to the 1958 Taiwan crisis. However, it is now clear from the original highly classified documents as well as other evidence now available...

The famed source of the Pentagon Papers, Daniel Ellsberg, has made another unauthorized disclosure — and wants to be prosecuted for it. By Charlie SavagePublished May 22, 2021 • Updated May 23, 2021 • 阅读简体中文版閱讀繁體中文版 WASHINGTON — When Communist Chinese forces began shelling islands controlled by Taiwan in 1958, the United States rushed to back up its ally with military force — including drawing up plans to carry out nuclear strikes on mainland China, according to an apparently still-classified document that sheds new light on how dangerous that crisis was. American military leaders pushed for a first-use nuclear strike on China, accepting the risk that the Soviet Union would retaliate in kind on behalf of its ally and millions of people would die, dozens of pages from a classified 1966 study of the confrontation show. The government censored those pages when it declassified the study for public release. The document...

America is a diplomatic fox, while Beijing is a hedgehog fixated on the big idea of reunification. Niall Ferguson June 1, 2021 Editor’s noteThis article was published as an opinion piece by Bloomberg on March 21, 2021. We bring you here the few last paragraphs which, hopefully, will stimulate you to read the whole piece at Bloomberg. The analysis’ central message is what the headline hints at – namely Taiwan as an exceptionally important issue for China that the United States ought not to deal lightly with and provoke (more) conflict around. It is not the style of Bloomberg to publish such pieces with an understanding of Chinese concerns and it is not every day an analysis like this comes out of the Hudson Institute. Perhaps Taiwan will turn out to be to the American empire what Suez was to the British Empire in 1956: the moment when the imperial...