October 1999

“Read the farewell interview with Macedonian President Kirov Gligorov and the analysis by TFF’s Macedonian adviser Dr. Biljana Vankovska on our site and you will understand how fragile Macedonia’s stability and peace is. Why not try a citizens’ ‘early warning’? We invite you to send us your ideas on how we can help Macedonia avoid violence and move towards peace in spite of all the obstacles,” says director Jan Oberg. “After the Kosovo war, all citizens of Macedonia go through very difficult times; presidential elections take on October 31. If there is one lesson from Kosovo, it is this: the earlier we deal with the problems, the more options there are, and the easier it is to solve conflicts without resorting to violence. It is a safe prediction that, unless various types of violence-preventive measures are taken and taken in time, Macedonia is likely to slide into chaos. If citizens...

“Read the farewell interview with Macedonian President Kirov Gligorov and the analysis by TFF’s Macedonian adviser Dr. Biljana Vankovska on our site and you will understand how fragile Macedonia’s stability and peace is. Why not try a citizens’ ‘early warning’? We invite you to send us your ideas on how we can help Macedonia avoid violence and move towards peace in spite of all the obstacles,” says director Jan Oberg. “After the Kosovo war, all citizens of Macedonia go through very difficult times; presidential elections take on October 31. If there is one lesson from Kosovo, it is this: the earlier we deal with the problems, the more options there are, and the easier it is to solve conflicts without resorting to violence. It is a safe prediction that, unless various types of violence-preventive measures are taken and taken in time, Macedonia is likely to slide into chaos. If citizens...

Christian HårlemanFd överstelöjtnant, f.d chef utbildningsavd för fredsbevarande operationer i FN,rådgivare till Institute of World Affairs, Washington D.Ce-mail: ch.harleman@crido.pp.se Jan Øberg, fil.dr.Direktör, Transnationella Stiftelsen för Freds- och framtidsforskning, TFF, i Lunde-mail: TFF@transnational.org Sverige håller på att installera ungefär 850 soldater i Kosovo som ska delta i KFOR, den militära styrka om 45.000 soldater med tung utrustning, som kom på plats i kölvattnet på NATO:s krig mot Jugoslavien under våren.Kostnaden uppges vara 900 miljoner kronor.Detta är den största enskilda satsning vår regering gör för att bidra till en lösning av de svåra problemen i och kring Kosovo. I jämförelse har Sverige avsatt 84 miljoner kronor år 1999 och år 2000 för civila insatser inom FN:s UNMIK-mission i Kosovo och 170 miljoner till humanitära insatser.Ett genomgående inslag i Sveriges och det såkallade internationella samfundets (fel)hantering av Balkans konflikter sedan 1980-talet har varit att fokusera på ett enda område åt gången och strunta...

Publiceret i danske “Aktuelt” i oktober 1999 EU’s og Danmarks USA-afhængige Balkanpolitik vil lede til nye katastrofer på Balkan. Det viser Helveg Petersens ulykkelige konflikt med den jugoslaviske opposition, mener fredsforskeren Jan Øberg. På forsiden af Berlingske Tidende kunne man den 10. september læse at udenrigsministrene Helveg Petersen og Robin Cook stod bag en “storstilet politisk EU-plan” for samarbejde med oppositionen i Jugoslavien. Som modydelse for jævnlige konsultationer, eksperthjælp, støtte til demokratisering, økonomisk hjælp, mulig lettelse af sanktionerne og andre EU-bidrag skulle oppositionen dernede garantere, at når den kom til magten ville den lovgive for og respektere menneskerettigheder, en fri presse og demokratiske valg. På det første møde i Luxembourg den 11. oktober kom ingen af de vigtigste oppositionelle. Begge udenrigsministre mener at alt som sædvanligt er Milosevic’ skyld og at han har truet dem til at blive væk. Dette uaget at det Demokratiske Partis leder Zoran Djindjic da han...

“In voting down the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the US Senate acted with irresponsible disregard for the security of the American people and the people of the world. It is an act unbecoming of a great nation. The Senate sent a message to the more than 185 countries that have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that the United States is not prepared to lead the global effort for non-proliferation nor to keep its promises to the international community. I urge the American people to send a strong message of disapproval to the Senators who voted against this treaty, and demand that the United States resume a leadership role in supporting the CTBT and preventing further nuclear tests by any country at any time and at any place…The American people should take heart that the Treaty is not dead, and this setback should be viewed as temporary — until they...

The Double Triangle: USA/NATO/AMPO versus RUSSIA, CHINA and INDIA Paper presented at the International Conference of NGOs, 11-13 October 1999 in Seoul, Korea 1. A Super Power in the Making: The Russia-China-India triangle Have a look at these press excerpts from late summer 1999: • “NATO MOVE MAY BRING RUSSIA CLOSER TO CHINA, INDIA Washington. – In an attempt to forge military cooperation with non-member states, NATO is spreading its wings eastwards to the Caucasus and Central Asia which may bring Russia closer to India and China,” the weekly Defense News said. “The move builds on a four-year-old project ‘Regional Initiative’ to install modern, harmonised Air Sovereignty and Operations Centres (ASOCs) in countries belonging to Partnership for Peace – funded by the US /which/ provides about five million dollars for each ASOC. Installations have opened in 10 countries across the Baltic region and Central and Eastern Europe, including in NATO’s...

EU’s og Danmarks USA-afhængige Balkanpolitik vil lede til nye katastrofer på Balkan. Det viser Helveg Petersens ulykkelige konflikt med den jugoslaviske opposition, mener fredsforskeren Jan Øberg. På forsiden af Berlingske Tidende kunne man den 10. september læse at udenrigsministrene Helveg Petersen og Robin Cook stod bag en “storstilet politisk EU-plan” for samarbejde med oppositionen i Jugoslavien. Som modydelse for jævnlige konsultationer, eksperthjælp, støtte til demokratisering, økonomisk hjælp, mulig lettelse af sanktionerne og andre EU-bidrag skulle oppositionen dernede garantere, at når den kom til magten ville den lovgive for og respektere menneskerettigheder, en fri presse og demokratiske valg. På det første møde i Luxembourg den 11. oktober kom ingen af de vigtigste oppositionelle. Begge udenrigsministre mener at alt som sædvanligt er Milosevic’ skyld og at han har truet dem til at blive væk. Dette uaget at det Demokratiske Partis leder Zoran Djindjic da han hørte dette i Beograd igår svarede at...

Christian HårlemanF.d. överstelöjtnant, f.d chef utbildningsavd. för fredsbevarande operationer i FN, rådgivare till Institute of World Affairs, Washington D.C e-mail: ch.harleman@crido.pp.se Jan ØbergFil.dr., Direktör för Transnationella Stiftelsen för Freds- och framtidsforskning, TFF, i Lunde-mail: TFF@transnational.org Sverige håller på att installera ungefär 850 soldater i Kosovo som ska delta i KFOR, den militära styrka om 45.000 soldater med tung utrustning, som kom på plats i kölvattnet på NATO:s krig mot Jugoslavien under våren. Som väntat och efter långa och noggranna förberedelser är styrkan både välutbildad och välutrustad: toppmodern utrustning och ungefär 140 olika fordon – allt från stridsvagnssläp, arbetsfordon och lastbilar till pansarbandvagnar, pansarskyttefordon och pansrade ledningsfordon. Kostnaden uppges vara 900 miljoner kronor. Detta är den största enskilda satsning vår regering gör för att bidra till en lösning av de svåra problemen i och kring Kosovo. I jämförelse har Sverige avsatt 84 miljoner kronor år 1999 och 2000 för civila insatser...

The Nato bombardment of Yugoslavia was undoubtedly illegal, since it contravened the fundamental principles of the United Nations Charter, which enjoins all members to refrain “from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state”; and which commits all members “to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace”. These are the points of departure for an article by the Swedish jurist, Ove Bring, published in the Autumn number of the Nato Review, 1999. Professor Bring tells us that there are only two justifications for the use of force which are acceptable under the UN Charter. One of these is covered in Article 51, which permits actions of self-defence only “until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to...

“The UN and NATO missions in Kosovo violate Security Council Resolution 1244 which clearly guarantees the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). The Security Council has just reaffirmed that Kosovo is a part of FRY. 1244 also demands the full cooperation of FRY in implementing the missions tasks. All this is pure pretence, as any visitor to Kosovo will learn – and mission members will tell you privately. The Report of the Secretary-General (S/1999/987 of September 16) does not even bother to mention whether KFOR/UNMIK cooperates with Belgrade! It seems pretty clear, rather, that the international community has fooled Belgrade and considers it so weak that it doesn’t even have to be polite or give the world the impression that it respects the country’s sovereignty. This coincides with credible press analyses that the U.S. decision makers think Kosovo must become independent. The international presence...

“Those who wrote the Report of the UN Secretary-General on the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) must have had other aims than accurate reporting. The report is biased, embellished, slanted. It omits important aspects which point toward the fact that this mission ignores Security Council Resolution 1244 on which it is based and is a failure in-the-making on its own criteria,” says TFF director Jan Oberg upon his return from TFF’s 37th mission to the region and his visit to Pristina, Skopje and Belgrade. “The report (S/1999/987 of September 16) covers the period in which at least 150.000 legitimate non-Albanian (Serbs, Roma,etc) citizens were driven out of the province. Normally this would be called ethnic cleansing. It has happened under the very eyes of 45.000 NATO soldiers, 1.100 UN civilian police and thousands of other internationals, including the OSCE and EU. The report does NOT state that this is a fatal blow...

The Way Away from the “Powder Keg” to the Oasis of Peace”– and Back Again 1. The Albanian Question versus the Macedonian Question: Historical background Peace and stability in Macedonia have always been heavily dependent both on internal and external factors. From a more recent point of view, it seems that the Kosovo conflict has explicit importance for the survival and future prospects of this country. It is a consequence not only of the fact that Macedonia is the nearest neighboring country, but rather of the fact that the Kosovo Question is a part of a wider Albanian Question in the Balkans. Moreover, within its own borders Macedonia itself is burdened with a part of this complex historical problem. The puzzle is additionally made more complex by the existence of so-called Macedonian Question. The impact of the Kosovo conflict on Macedonia can best be explored through focusing on the facets...