December 1997

COPENHAGEN–The most peculiar aspect of the Asian economic crisis so far is that no one has mentioned the three words, John Maynard Keynes. Yet the response both from national governments (in particular Japan), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington and, now with Monday’s meeting in New York, the commercial banks joined by the securities houses, has been utterly and totally Keynesian–prime the pump. Keynesian economics, intellectually derided by the Chicago school, in particular Milton Friedman, and politically rubbished by Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, has had its comeback. “Signs of solution are at last beginning to emerge where it matters most, in Japan”, editorialized the Financial Times approvingly on Monday (but without mentioning the word Keynes), “the use of public funds to support the banking system and a readiness to put fiscal policy on an expansionary track”. Yet, even now, elements of anti-Keynesianism persist in the current economic doctoring. The...

“The future of the Brcko area was the only one not settled in Dayton. Thus, it was either the most difficult of all, or the United States and the parties agreed that it would be better to have their decision concerning that hot spot appear as binding arbitration. The arbitration decision is expected by mid-February. But any solution will antagonise at least one of the groups in the Brcko area, the entities or neighbouring republics,” says Jan Øberg, director of the TFF who recently returned from the TFF’s 24th mission to ex-Yugoslavia, including a fact-finding visit to Brcko. “The Dayton Agreement created a conflict by not defining the area under arbitration, and it will create more now,” he adds. “The three options usually mentioned — give it to the Federation, give it to Republika Srpska, or make it an area under international military control — are zero-sum games and care...

Message from 30th January EventCoordination Committee, India30 Dec 1997 As we approach the end of the 20th century, arguably one of the most violent, mankind is faced with one definite option Nonviolence or Non-existence. The 20th Century produced its share of luminaries who left behind their indelible impression on the sands of time some who will be revered and some who will be hated. Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, The Mahatma, was one of the foremost personalities of the century. Born in the later half of the 19th century, 2nd October 1869, he strode across the 20th Century with one philosophy of life, Nonviolence. During the most violent period of the century while the rest of the civilized world was indulging in a mad orgy of violence the Mahatma led two nonviolent movements and achieved success. The equal rights movement for Asian immigrants in South Africa and the movement for freedom in...

LONDON– It’s almost exactly one year since General George Lee Butler made his confessional statement before the National Press Club in Washington–that as commander in chief of the U.S. Strategic Command which controls all navy and airforce nuclear weapons he’d had moral qualms and profound doubts about America’s possession of nuclear weapons. The speech triggered an avalanche of supportive phone calls and letters from all over the world. This led General Butler to conclude that he could “discern the makings of an emerging global concensus that the risks posed by nuclear weapons far outweigh the presumed benefits”. Yet barely a month passed before General Butler realized that for all this initial enthusiasm the heavyweight critics in the political, military and journalistic establishments were not impressed. They had, he said later, “sniffed imperiously at the goal of elimination, aired their stock Cold War rhetoric, hurled a personal epithet or two and settled...

LONDON– Not even the cynics consumed by South Korea’s dire economic crisis doubted that the country’s general election would be honest, above-board, with a result that would meet with widespread acquiescence both at home and abroad. Yet only 18 years ago this country was a dictatorship; only 50 years ago a poverty-ridden village economy. For all the magnitude of its present financial troubles it cannot be gainsaid that South Korea has gone from rags to riches, from one man rule to one man (and one woman) one vote in a generation. It is truly one of the wonders of our age. After all, only in the late 1940s did most western countries become fully-fledged democracies, with universal adult suffrage. Outstanding through the march of time South Korea’s progress has been, it is part of a broader movement that has swept most of the world in recent decades. Last year I reported...

“The restructuring of global financial markets and institutions has enabled the accumulation of vast amounts of private wealth, a large portion of which has been amassed as a result of strictly speculative transactions. The number of billionaires in the US alone increased from 13 in 1982 to 149 in 1996. The “Global Billionaires Club” (with some 450 members) has a total Worldwide wealth well in excess of the combined GDP of the group of low income countries with 56 percent of the World’s population (Forbes Magazine, International Billionaires, the World’s Richest People, 1997. The data is based on recorded wealth. It tends to grossly underestimate the concentration of global wealth). Family fortunes are in some case in excess of the GDP of countries (for instance, the private wealth of the Walton Family owners of Walmart (27 billion), is of the same order of magnitude as the GDP of Bangladesh with...

Action Kit from Earth Action If you care about human rights, this may be your biggest single chanceto make a difference. In our time, the world has seen some of the most horrific mass crimes in history. Yet most of the criminals walk free. In 1946, the defeated war criminals of World War II were tried for their crimes at historic tribunals in Nuremberg and Tokyo. The international community determined that war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and military aggression should never again go unpunished. They talked of setting up a permanent international court to address such horrors and help prevent them in the future. But nothing was done. As a result, military and political leaders responsible for the deaths of millions-such as Saddam Hussein and Pol Pot-never had to fear prosecution for their crimes. Right now, a process is going on at the UN which will, finally, make an...

I somras bekräftade EU-kommissionen sitt beslut från mars 1995 att som ett led i den planerade utvidgningen av unionen inleda medlemskapsförhandlingar med Cypern. Den 12 – 13 december 1997 ska EU:s regeringschefer vid ett toppmöte i Luxemburg bestämma vilka av de tio kandidatländerna som EU skall påbörja en förhandlingsprocess med. Hur än EU väljer att hantera Cyperns väg mot medlemskap kommer det att få återverkningar på den potentiellt explosiva relationen mellan öns grek- och turkcyprioter. Cypern, som har haft ett associationsavtal med EG/EU sedan 1973 och en tullunion sedan 1988, ansökte 1990 om fullt medlemskap. 1993 passerade ansökan det första nålsögat. Då uttalade EU-kommissionen i en avi att Cypern uppfyllde de ekonomiska villkoren för fullvärdigt medlemskap. Däremot innehöll avin reservationer kring huruvida Cypern kunde anses uppfylla de politiska villkoren för medlemskap, bland annat kravet på fri rörlighet, så länge den långvariga konflikten på ön var olöst. I Agenda 2000, EU-kommissionens...

LONDON– “5,500 journalists and 700 in the American delegation alone” reports a London newspaper on the Kyoto global warming jamboree. If only one tenth of those would turn up for a conference on supplying pure water and giving every girl a basic primary education then we might be getting somewhere with the most tangible pressing environmental need of our age. (And one that cannot be scientifically questioned, to boot.) Still, give Kyoto its due. This is the way issues get placed firmly on the political map. “I have only a modest proposal” said Kierkegaard as I recall “to make the true state of affairs known.” It may be the wrong issue, it may be an overblown issue but if you believe in getting attention this is the way to do it. But it has its dangers. Crying wolf can be counterproductive. Twenty-five years ago I wrote a column for the Washington...

Danmark har til årsskiftet formandsskabet i OSCE, den Europæiske Sikkerheds- og Samarbejdsorganisation og der skal være topmøde i København 18-19. december. I København bør energien bruges til konkrete handlinger og ikke spildes på floromvundne udtalelser. I perioden 1975-85 profilerede OSCE sig ved menneskerettigheder, kontakter, information, kultur og uddannelse. Mellem 1986 og 1992 tilkom tillids- og sikkerhedsskabende tiltag og våbenkontrol. Og med Paris Chartret fra 1990 ligger tyngdepunktet på folkeretten, demokrati, markedsliberale reformer, social retfærdighed og miljøaspekter samt, fra 1994, forebyggende diplomati, konfliktforebyggelse, krisestyring og kooperativ sikkerhed. I 15 af verdens brændpunkter har vi OSCE-missioner hvor der gøres et imponerene arbejde, der sjældent når ud i medierne. Medlemsstaterne, der skønt navnet også regner USA og Canada, er øget fra 34 i 1990 til 55 i dag og verden er gledet ind i en fase hvor OSCEs og FNs målsætninger og erfaringer er langt mere relevante end NATOs og f.eks. den Vest-Europæiske...

Danmark fungerar fram till årsskiftet som ordförandeland i OSSE, den Europeiska Säkerhets- och Samarbetsorganisationen. 18 &endash; 19 december arrangeras ett toppmöte i Köpenhamn. Jag hoppas att energin vid detta möte används till konkret handling och inte förspills i flortunna uttalanden. Under perioden 1975 &endash; 1985 profilerade sig OSSE när det gäller mänskliga rättigheter, information, kultur och utbildning. Mellan åren 1986 och 1992 tillkom förtroende- och säkerhetsskapande åtgärder samt vapenkontroll. Med Paris Chartret från 1990 ligger tyngdpunkten på folkrätt, demokrati, marknadsliberala reformer, social rättvisa, miljöfrågor samt från 1994 på förebyggande diplomati, konfliktförebyggande insatser, krishantering och kooperativ säkerhet. I 15 av världens brännpunkter har OSSE-insatser gjort imponerande mycket som sällan når ut i medierna. Medlemsstaterna, till vilka trots OSSEs namn också räknas USA och Kanada, har från 1990 ökat i antal från 34 till 55 i dag. Världen har gått in i ett skede, där OSSEs och FNs målsättningar och erfarenheter är...

LONDON– Graham Greene’s great novel, “The Comedians,” set in the Haiti of dictator Papa Doc, gives some support to the artist’s pious hope that “a writer is not so powerless as he usually feels, and a pen, as well as a silver bullet, can draw blood.” How else to explain how this half of a Caribbean island gets more of a press than it deserves? Moreover, it is, apart from Bosnia, the one part of the world that gets both a UN peacekeeping presence and the U.S.’s own one. It is in part the legacy of Graham Greene; it is partly the fascination with the lurid; but it is also, as it was for Central America in the last decade, because it is in America’s own backyard, with the added issue that when the politics and economics of this impoverished “vast wrinkled wasteland” go wrong the people take to their boats,...